Daniel, so you're implying that polls are probably accurate? Presumably the implication is that it's ok for NY voters to be complacent and stay home. Seems an irresponsible argument for a seemingly committed Democrat such as yourself. Anyway, a cursory glance at the history of the last two elections says that statistical sampling error never tells the whole story, lots of strange things happen with, for example, exit polls, things that are are inexplicable based on statistics alone.