Charlie,
Tough call not knowing the conditions. In the pecoy notch part of the trail where I don't think it gets much sun, you could be wishing you had snowshoes but on the mink hollow part where it gets a good deal of sun and glazes up, you could be wishing you had a pair of walking crampons.
I would probably take my msr snow shoes and throw a pair of 4 point crampons into my pack this way I'm prepared for both eventualities and don't have to carry heavy crampons or use special boots.
Oh yeah, a word of warning, if you do the loop clockwise, pay close attention to the confusing trail markers that bring you back to your car, it is easy to miss the sign to bring you back to your original parking spot. Last weekend, the trail into pecoy notch was beat down, but, the trail right to mink hollow was virgin and there was about 18inches of snow.
Oh, and have fun, it is one of my favorite catskill hikes (I have only done about 20 catskill hikes though, so....)