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#47304 - 08/03/09 09:44 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
oenophore Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5981
Loc: 212 land
Originally Posted By: Daniel
1. My understanding is that international law allows nations to have nuclear power programs.

2. My understanding is that even if Iran is really aiming at building a bomb, it's not imminent. According to an expert on tonght's PBS Newshour, U.S. intelligence puts an Iranian nuke at 3 to 5 years away.

The issues surrounding Iran's possible acquisition of a nuclear bomb should be taken seriously, but I also think today's announcement should not be blown out of proportion. After all, there's really very little we can do about it on our own in the short term anyway.
Has the time come?
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#47355 - 08/07/09 08:10 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: oenophore]
Daniel Offline
veteran

Registered: 05/23/01
Posts: 1515
"Has the time come?"

Maybe. According to "The Inheritance" by David Suskind, Iran's strategy was to have the know-how to build a nuke on short notice, which is what the linked article also says.

But so what? Is there much we or anyone else can do? I've read that a military strike would be hard to carry out, and even if successful it would only delay things a few years while radicalizing the leadership and giving it more support among the public. So it seems to me that the military option makes things worse, not better.

And prospects of getting Russia and China to support sanctions seem dim.

So I suspect we'll learn to live with the situation. I always thought the idea of Iran lobbing a nuke at Tel Aviv was pretty ludicrous since it would mean the end of the Iranian regime (I think even Russia and China would draw the line at that point). The greater danger is someone giving a bomb to some non-government actor. If anyone has ideas on that, I'm sure there are people in the Obama administration who would like to hear them....

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#47356 - 08/07/09 08:20 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
pedestrian Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/05/02
Posts: 2244
Loc: a heavily fortified bunker!
Apparently their nuclear infrastructure is too dispersed to be taken out with a single F16 strike, Israeli style. Too bad - such a strike could have been successful years ago.

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#47369 - 08/08/09 12:50 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
Mark Heyman Offline
old hand

Registered: 12/23/99
Posts: 1123
Loc: South Jersey (Pinelands)
Originally Posted By: Oeno
"Has the time come?"


Originally Posted By: Daniel
Maybe. According to "The Inheritance" by David Suskind, Iran's strategy was to have the know-how to build a nuke on short notice, which is what the linked article also says.


I think we'd be relatively happy with accurate knowlege that they would limit themselves to the ability to to build a nuke on short notice. What we wory most about is that one stored soemwhere will get into the "wrong" hands.

Originally Posted By: Daniel
Is there much we or anyone else can do? ... a military strike ... would only delay things a few years while radicalizing the leadership and giving it more support among the public...


Agreed


Edited by Mark Heyman (08/08/09 01:23 PM)

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#47370 - 08/08/09 03:08 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Mark Heyman]
Daniel Offline
veteran

Registered: 05/23/01
Posts: 1515
Two items.

First, "The Inheritance" is by David Sanger (sorry about that).

Second, the Washington Post says there's an updated State Department intelligence bureau report stating that Iran is unlikely to have weapons grade uranium before 2013.

For an article critical of the efficacy of sanctions against Iran, try here.

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#51198 - 04/07/10 09:27 AM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Mark Heyman]
oenophore Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5981
Loc: 212 land

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