here are my can't sleep predictions for 2006.

Netanyahu wins the elections in Israel.
The security council doesn't act on Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Netanyahu bombs the Iranian nuclear installations.
Geo. Bush applauds Netanyahu.
A major terrorist action occurs in a western us city, with a chlorine gas cloud blowing through the city after a refinery is hit.
The fear of a dirty bomb in a shipping container causes us ports to be slowed down while offshore inspections finally starts for real.

Nice Doomsday scenario, Graham. I would add:

The terrorist strike Graham postulates is in the US.
In its wake Bush declares martial law.
The newly-packed Supreme Court agrees that the Commander-in-Chief has the power to do that.

A refinery strike would not release chlorine gas (go to a chemical plant for that). A refinery strike would (could) release a dense, ground-hugging fog of hydrogen fluoride. Worse than chlorine. Think Bhopal.

I don't know of any hydrogen floride tank farms near a western US city...but chlorine tank farms abound.

I forgot about one:

the fighting resulting as Hamas and Fatah go all out in Gaza after the elections spreads to palestinian communities throughout the middle east including jordan.

From what my friends say, the terrorists who would be carrying out attacks in the US are all busy in Iraq trying to expel the Americans.

If Israel were to attack Iran, there would be a stream of newly recruited terrorists heading towards Israel, not immediately towards the US. There would be a rise in terrorism in the area, in Iraq as well.

There would be an increased threat in the US, but homeland security would see it right away. Plots against the US take a lot more time to organize and get underway, so we would have some warning something was going on.

The question is what would we see? Al-Q thinks big. Maybe they'd target oil refineries, but I understand that's not how they operate, they're still thinking big, as NYC big. But they're not the only ones around; my question is how long until we see suicide bombers walking into synagogues in the US? It doesn't take much planning, it doesn't take many resources. So far Al-Q has been the focus, but when will other groups decide that nobody is doing anything and take matters into their own hands and just start doing random acts of terrorism?

Crackers's hypothesis brings up questions.
What does Israel know of Iran's intentions and capability in this realm?
Would Netanyahu so act without sub-rosa approval from Washington?
Would the administration publicly approve such an act or would it hypocritically condemn it and insist on a firm slap on the wrist?

time to buy that bunker deep in the utah west desert.

Wasn't Bhopal methyl isocyanate?

Yes it was

Yes, in a dense, ground-hugging fog. Such as HF would form in the event of a catastrophic release. The worst-case scenarios are confidential, I believe, but a hit on a refinery in LA could claim thousands.