Shout Box

Who's Online
0 registered (), 9 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Page 1 of 5 1 2 3 4 5 >
Topic Options
#17661 - 01/11/06 03:30 PM Strange and Scary Thoughts
crackers Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/21/01
Posts: 3424
Loc: pdx
here are my can't sleep predictions for 2006.

Netanyahu wins the elections in Israel.
The security council doesn't act on Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Netanyahu bombs the Iranian nuclear installations.
Geo. Bush applauds Netanyahu.
A major terrorist action occurs in a western us city, with a chlorine gas cloud blowing through the city after a refinery is hit.
The fear of a dirty bomb in a shipping container causes us ports to be slowed down while offshore inspections finally starts for real.

Top
#17662 - 01/11/06 03:35 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: crackers]
RAF Offline
site supporter

Registered: 04/12/02
Posts: 793
Loc: Colorado (!)
Nice Doomsday scenario, Graham. I would add:

The terrorist strike Graham postulates is in the US.
In its wake Bush declares martial law.
The newly-packed Supreme Court agrees that the Commander-in-Chief has the power to do that.

Top
#17663 - 01/11/06 03:50 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: crackers]
Mike Rawdon Offline

Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/29/99
Posts: 4276
Loc: Poughkeepsie
A refinery strike would not release chlorine gas (go to a chemical plant for that). A refinery strike would (could) release a dense, ground-hugging fog of hydrogen fluoride. Worse than chlorine. Think Bhopal.

Top
#17664 - 01/11/06 03:53 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Mike Rawdon]
crackers Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/21/01
Posts: 3424
Loc: pdx
I don't know of any hydrogen floride tank farms near a western US city...but chlorine tank farms abound.

I forgot about one:

the fighting resulting as Hamas and Fatah go all out in Gaza after the elections spreads to palestinian communities throughout the middle east including jordan.

Top
#17665 - 01/11/06 04:47 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: crackers]
quanto_the_mad Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 05/14/02
Posts: 2628
Loc: brooklyn
From what my friends say, the terrorists who would be carrying out attacks in the US are all busy in Iraq trying to expel the Americans.

If Israel were to attack Iran, there would be a stream of newly recruited terrorists heading towards Israel, not immediately towards the US. There would be a rise in terrorism in the area, in Iraq as well.

There would be an increased threat in the US, but homeland security would see it right away. Plots against the US take a lot more time to organize and get underway, so we would have some warning something was going on.

The question is what would we see? Al-Q thinks big. Maybe they'd target oil refineries, but I understand that's not how they operate, they're still thinking big, as NYC big. But they're not the only ones around; my question is how long until we see suicide bombers walking into synagogues in the US? It doesn't take much planning, it doesn't take many resources. So far Al-Q has been the focus, but when will other groups decide that nobody is doing anything and take matters into their own hands and just start doing random acts of terrorism?
_________________________


Top
#17666 - 01/11/06 09:17 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: crackers]
oenophore Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5981
Loc: 212 land
Crackers's hypothesis brings up questions.
What does Israel know of Iran's intentions and capability in this realm?
Would Netanyahu so act without sub-rosa approval from Washington?
Would the administration publicly approve such an act or would it hypocritically condemn it and insist on a firm slap on the wrist?
_________________________

Top
#17667 - 01/12/06 02:18 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: oenophore]
andrew Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/15/99
Posts: 1816
Loc: Denver, CO
time to buy that bunker deep in the utah west desert.
_________________________
This isn't an office. It's Hell with fluorescent lighting.

Top
#17668 - 01/12/06 03:49 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: andrew]
Dana Offline
addict

Registered: 07/13/00
Posts: 619
Wasn't Bhopal methyl isocyanate?

Top
#17669 - 01/12/06 04:09 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Dana]
alicex4 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 07/05/00
Posts: 3400
Yes it was

Top
#17670 - 01/12/06 07:58 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: alicex4]
Mike Rawdon Offline

Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/29/99
Posts: 4276
Loc: Poughkeepsie
Yes, in a dense, ground-hugging fog. Such as HF would form in the event of a catastrophic release. The worst-case scenarios are confidential, I believe, but a hit on a refinery in LA could claim thousands.

Top
#17671 - 01/23/06 11:12 AM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: crackers]
oenophore Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5981
Loc: 212 land
Quote of the day

January 22nd, 2006

“About two thousand kilometres.”

Lieut-General Dan Halutz, Israel’s Chief of Staff, on being asked how far Israel would go to stop Iran’s nuclear programme.

Source: Economist, 21 January, 2006, page 53.

_________________________

Top
#17672 - 01/23/06 02:25 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: oenophore]
Daniel Offline
veteran

Registered: 05/23/01
Posts: 1515
Would Netanyahu so act without sub-rosa approval from Washington?

I think that Israeli leaders are perfectly willing to act without U.S. approval. (Not that it would probably be necessary. As Tom Friedman said some time ago, Sharon has Bush so deep in his pocket that he can't find him anymore.)

But there's a serious question as to whether Israel has the capacity to carry out a strike effectively because the Iranian operations are so dispersed. Even we could have difficulty doing it. From a Sunday Times Week In Review piece :

"'You are talking about something in the neighborhood of a thousand strike sorties,' said Mr. Lang [former head of Middle East intelligence at the Defense Intelligence Agency]. 'And it would take all kinds of stuff - air, cruise missiles, multiple restrikes - to make sure you've got it all.' Other former officials say fewer bombing runs would be needed.

"The Israelis, who see Iran's nuclear program as a threat to their existence and have been far more outspoken about a military option, give a similar assessment. But they also say they lack the air power, or the reach, to do the job."

Seems to me that a military strike could hinder operations but not stop them--and piss off a lot of moderate Iranians in the process. Also seems to me that our best opportunity in a bad situation is to reach out to the general Iranian population, most of whom are young and seriously dislike the mullahs that are running their country, and hope for long-term change. But who knows if our own government is capable of thinking in such terms anymore.

Top
#17673 - 01/23/06 02:43 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
Mike Rawdon Offline

Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/29/99
Posts: 4276
Loc: Poughkeepsie
Quote:

[Also seems to me that our best opportunity in a bad situation is to reach out to the general Iranian population, most of whom are young and seriously dislike the mullahs that are running their country, and hope for long-term change.




You mean we should get democracy on the march in Iran and hope that free elections will install a Western-friendly government?

Given the recent failure of that Beltway dream in Iraq, I wouldn't hold your breath.

Top
#17674 - 01/23/06 04:08 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
crackers Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/21/01
Posts: 3424
Loc: pdx
It would not take anything like a 1000 strikes to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities for the foreseeable future.

It would take no more than a few hundred conventional bombs.

And I would disagree with the 'most young iranians hate the mullahs.' its just not true.

Top
#17675 - 01/23/06 05:34 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: crackers]
chazman Offline
old hand

Registered: 02/07/02
Posts: 944
I guess I’m not such a global dooms-day thinker… how about: Gas prices keep going up (or am I the only one who thinks that?), Ford cuts 25,000 to 30,000 jobs and idles 14 facilities, credit card companies must now almost double the minimum payment they are required to collect (over 7% of card holders make only the minimum payment), housing prices are (arguably) over inflated and the record number of “creative” mortgages that allowed John-Q-Public to buy that McMansion are suddenly facing a balloon payment that may be higher than the equity in the house, the new Medicare drug benefit plan is not the gift it was promised to be to the nations elderly (especially those with mental illnesses) are having trouble getting medications, the cost of the war is looking to be in the Trillions and we still can’t get New Orleans back on its feet (except for the majority white neighborhoods),… I think 2006 will be full of all kinds of fun surprises right here without having to think about the rest of the world.

Top
#17676 - 01/23/06 06:11 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Mike Rawdon]
Daniel Offline
veteran

Registered: 05/23/01
Posts: 1515
You mean we should get democracy on the march in Iran and hope that free elections will install a Western-friendly government?

Given the recent failure of that Beltway dream in Iraq, I wouldn't hold your breath.


Hey, I never said it was a great option. I just think it's the best of a bad lot. I think bombing will only delay, not prevent, Iran's nuclear capabilities. And if the Muslims out there dislike us now, just wait until we hit a few schools by accident.

This Slate Magazine article has a good discussion on the Iranian nukes problem. On the feasability of the military option, it says:

"So, what if diplomacy does fail? One thing is clear: The Israeli air force has spent the last several years preparing for that possibility. They have reportedly practiced bombing runs against a scale model of Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor, which they have built out in the desert. They have equipped all their F-15I and F-16I attack aircraft with external fuel tanks; each plane now has a combat radius of over 1,500 miles—more than enough to reach the real Bushehr and several other nuclear facilities. Israel has also acknowledged buying from the United States 500 BLU-109 air-to-surface bombs—popularly known as bunker busters—which can penetrate seven feet of reinforced concrete.

"However, some defense officials say this isn't enough. The Natanz facility, site of Iran's uranium-enrichment, is dug deeper still. The BLU-109 doesn't release a powerful enough blast to destroy Natanz. The site would be damaged, and the enrichment would probably be set back by several months, maybe even a year, but that's all. Meanwhile, the airstrike would likely spark a war with Israel (including stepped-up attacks by Iranian-funded Hezbollah), rally regional and international support for Iran, and stiffen the Iranian people's support for their besieged regime.

"If the United States joined in an airstrike, pounding the nuclear sites with repeated attacks from bombers and ship-launched cruise missiles, Natanz and the other facilities probably would be destroyed. Some U.S. officials fear that, for this reason (and because an Israeli attack would be widely interpreted as having an American stamp of approval in any case), the Israelis might launch an attack with the intent of drawing in the United States."

The rest of the article is well worth reading, though the author admits he doesn't have any good answers either.

Top
#17677 - 01/23/06 07:51 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: chazman]
crackers Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/21/01
Posts: 3424
Loc: pdx
Well, the really interesting part of credit card and mortage failure is the costs that will be absorbed in the reinsurance market with the failure of CDOs as an asset class. I say really interesting because the catastrophic effects of bank failure is significantly greater than individual bankruptcy: oh wait, you can't declare bankruptcy anymore!

As for the Iranian thing, why focus on conventional weapons?

Top
#17678 - 01/25/06 05:19 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: crackers]
Daniel Offline
veteran

Registered: 05/23/01
Posts: 1515
Am I the only one more worried about Pakistan than Iran?

Iran is years away from having nukes, even if they had free access to the technology. Pakistan already has them (and has exported the technology), and missiles to put them on. Pakistan has more than its share of extreme religious groups. Pakistan is being run by one person whom we support despite his failure to return the country to democracy, which hardly makes us popular over there (never mind our recent bombing of terrorists there which also took out a number of civilians). The country is not stable. If some nutcase takes out Musharraf, that place could descend into chaos and who knows where those bombs might end up.

Top
#17679 - 04/10/06 11:44 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
oenophore Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5981
Loc: 212 land
You might say we're living in interesting times. See Seymour Hersh's article about this subject in the Apr. 17 New Yorker.
_________________________

Top
#17680 - 04/11/06 01:03 AM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: oenophore]
chazman Offline
old hand

Registered: 02/07/02
Posts: 944
Quote:

The doctrine of prevention is to work together to prevent the Iranians from having a nuclear weapon. I know -- I know here in Washington prevention means force. It doesn't mean force, necessarily. In this case, it means diplomacy. And by the way, I read the articles in the newspapers this weekend. It was just wild speculation, by the way. What you're reading is wild speculation, which is -- it's kind of a -- happens quite frequently here in the nation's capital. "W"



Top
#17681 - 04/11/06 04:17 AM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: chazman]
Daniel Offline
veteran

Registered: 05/23/01
Posts: 1515
So: The doctrine of prevention means force when W says it means force, and means diplomacy when W says it means diplomacy. In short, it means whatever the administration says it means in any particular circumstance, and since the administration won't tell us what objective standards it applies in determining what it means, it means nothing.

I guess we shouldn't have expected anything more from those who described themselves as "compassionate conservates," which also appears to mean whatever they want it to mean from situation to situation.

And down the rabbit hole we continue to fall . . . .

Top
#17682 - 04/11/06 07:16 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: oenophore]
chazman Offline
old hand

Registered: 02/07/02
Posts: 944
Iran's answer to this wild speculation...
Quote:

April 11, 2006
Iran Claims Nuclear Breakthrough
By NAZILA FATHI and CHRISTINE HAUSER

TEHRAN, April 11 — President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said today that Iranian scientists had achieved the goal of enriching uranium for its nuclear power program and that the nation was determined to develop production on an industrial scale.

"The nuclear fuel cycle at the laboratory level has been completed, and uranium with the desired enrichment for nuclear power plants was achieved," Mr. Ahmedinejad said in a speech that was broadcast live from the city of Mashad.

"Iran has joined the nuclear countries of the world," he later added. "This is a starting point for more major points of success for the Iranian nation."

Mr. Ahmadinejad also said that Iran was treading a path for the production of industrial fuel.

He said that other countries must respect Iran's right to pursue a peaceful nuclear program.




Top
#17683 - 04/11/06 10:23 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: chazman]
Daniel Offline
veteran

Registered: 05/23/01
Posts: 1515
1. My understanding is that international law allows nations to have nuclear power programs.

2. My understanding is that even if Iran is really aiming at building a bomb, it's not imminent. According to an expert on tonght's PBS Newshour, U.S. intelligence puts an Iranian nuke at 3 to 5 years away.

The issues surrounding Iran's possible acquisition of a nuclear bomb should be taken seriously, but I also think today's announcement should not be blown out of proportion. After all, there's really very little we can do about it on our own in the short term anyway.

Top
#17684 - 04/21/06 10:44 AM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
oenophore Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5981
Loc: 212 land
_________________________

Top
#17685 - 04/21/06 01:18 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: oenophore]
pedestrian Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/05/02
Posts: 2244
Loc: a heavily fortified bunker!
War by October is highly unlikely. This process is going to take years before we get to that point.

Top
#17686 - 04/21/06 02:05 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
alicex4 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 07/05/00
Posts: 3400
"The issues surrounding Iran's possible acquisition of a nuclear bomb should be taken seriously, but I also think today's announcement should not be blown out of proportion. After all, there's really very little we can do about it on our own in the short term anyway. "


No worries Daniel, Iran is elected to the Asia seat of the UN Disarmament Committee. Am I the only person who sees the irony?

Top
#17687 - 04/21/06 06:59 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
timh Offline
member

Registered: 10/18/00
Posts: 194
Loc: Delaware
"2. My understanding is that even if Iran is really aiming at building a bomb, it's not imminent. According to an expert on tonght's PBS Newshour, U.S. intelligence puts an Iranian nuke at 3 to 5 years away."

If this is the same "U.S. intellegence" that claimed that Iraq had WMD's, it probably means that Iran is alot closer to having the bomb than said experts would like to admitt.
_________________________
Tim

Top
#17688 - 04/21/06 07:09 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: timh]
zachres Offline
addict

Registered: 04/03/03
Posts: 495
Loc: In the midst of a "psychotic b...
Quote:

"2. My understanding is that even if Iran is really aiming at building a bomb, it's not imminent. According to an expert on tonght's PBS Newshour, U.S. intelligence puts an Iranian nuke at 3 to 5 years away."

If this is the same "U.S. intellegence" that claimed that Iraq had WMD's, it probably means that Iran is alot closer to having the bomb than said experts would like to admitt.





Actually, the logical conclusion would be the inverse.. that Iran is much farther away from having the bomb than the intelligence predicts... assuming it's the same source, analyst, etc.. obviously, we lean towards alarmism.

Zach
_________________________
Give me liberty, or give me death!

Top
#17689 - 04/21/06 11:46 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: alicex4]
Daniel Offline
veteran

Registered: 05/23/01
Posts: 1515
We can complain all we want about Iran's potential to make a nuke. We can speculate all we want about when that might happen. The operative question is: what can we do about it? The answer seems to me to be: not much. A military strike would probably only delay the program, not stop it. It would spawn myriads of Al Qaeda-type organizations. It would radicalize the Iranian population, most of whom don't really hate us at the moment. There are no good options here, only bad ones and worse ones. And of the options I've heard, seems to me that the military one falls in the latter category.

Top
#17690 - 04/22/06 02:09 AM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
mworking Offline
old hand

Registered: 05/26/04
Posts: 764
Quote:

"2. My understanding is that even if Iran is really aiming at building a bomb, it's not imminent. According to an expert on tonght's PBS Newshour, U.S. intelligence puts an Iranian nuke at 3 to 5 years away."

If this is the same "U.S. intellegence" that claimed that Iraq had WMD's, it probably means that Iran is alot closer to having the bomb than said experts would like to admitt.




No it means exaclty what Daniel, wrote before - which was that GWs admisitraion will tell us what ever they think will lead us to believe what is good for them is good for us.

Quote:

We can complain all we want about Iran's potential to make a nuke. We can speculate all we want about when that might happen. The operative question is: what can we do about it? The answer seems to me to be: not much. A military strike would probably only delay the program, not stop it. It would spawn myriads of Al Qaeda-type organizations. It would radicalize the Iranian population, most of whom don't really hate us at the moment. There are no good options here, only bad ones and worse ones. And of the options I've heard, seems to me that the military one falls in the latter category.




You may have just convinced me that we will be at war wih Iran shortly!

Top
#17691 - 04/25/06 08:57 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: mworking]
drkodos Offline
addict

Registered: 05/02/04
Posts: 674
Loc: Chattanooga, TN
Quote:



You may have just convinced me that we will be at war wih Iran shortly!




One can always hope, can't they?
_________________________

Top
#17692 - 04/25/06 09:11 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: mworking]
oenophore Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5981
Loc: 212 land

_________________________

Top
#17693 - 04/25/06 09:40 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: oenophore]
pedestrian Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/05/02
Posts: 2244
Loc: a heavily fortified bunker!

Top
#17694 - 04/25/06 09:43 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
oenophore Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5981
Loc: 212 land
Israel launches "eye in the sky" over Iran

By Ori Lewis


JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israel successfully launched on Tuesday a highly accurate imaging satellite which will enhance its ability to spy on Iran, an official said.

Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said this week that the nuclear program being pursued by arch-foe Iran was the most serious threat faced by Jews since the Nazi Holocaust.

"The launching of the satellite was successful," an official with the manufacturer ImageSat International said.

Shimon Eckhaus, the firm's chief executive, told Reuters earlier on Tuesday: "The capabilities of the satellite speak for themselves. I do not need to say anything about what the purpose of its use might be."

A report in Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth said the Eros B satellite has a camera which can decipher objects on the ground as small as 70 centimeters (about two feet) across.

Eckhaus confirmed the accuracy of the published details to Reuters.

The report said Eros B will join an earlier version of the satellite, launched in December 2000. Both are set to augment the work of Israel's declared spy satellite, Ofek 5, which regularly passes over Arab territory.

The Yedioth report said that Israel was planning to send up another spy satellite with the ability to view objects in all weather conditions and in darkness. The Eros satellites are effective only in daylight and in clear visibility.
The launch comes at a time of heightened tension over Iran's nuclear program.

The United States accuses Iran of seeking to build nuclear bombs and has refused to rule out military options if diplomacy fails to curb the Islamic Republic's atomic ambitions. Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful and aimed at generating electricity.

LAUNCHED FROM RUSSIA

Like its predecessor in 2000, Eros B was launched from the Svobodny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East later on Tuesday using a Russian Start-1 rocket.

It will orbit the Earth at a height of about 500 km (310 miles) and will circle the globe roughly every 95 minutes, ImageSat said.

The Eros satellites, which weigh under 350kg (770 lb), are among a number of small, lightweight satellites which Israel's space industry has perfected, Eckhaus said.

Because of the country's geographical location and small size, the space industry generally favors smaller payloads that can more easily be launched from Israeli territory.

"The fact that we are launching the satellite in Russia means that we can do so with the Earth's rotation and makes it more effective and gives it a longer life span," Eckhaus said.

Israel is only able to launch small satellites westwards over the Mediterranean Sea -- opposite to the Earth's rotation -- because it cannot risk rockets flying over its Arab neighbors to the east or debris falling on their territory.

© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.
_________________________

Top
#17695 - 04/25/06 10:57 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: oenophore]
drkodos Offline
addict

Registered: 05/02/04
Posts: 674
Loc: Chattanooga, TN
If you people wish to continue surfing the net and making vaccuous comments like the ones you are predisposed to do, you should be hoping we start the nuking sooner rather than later.

Despite your best efforts, your incredible ignorance of the underlying realities and histories involved shines through like even the most poorly veiled black bossom under the pulse of a properly synchronized flash from a speed light and reveals one of the most amazing disconnects in modern intelligent mankind.




_________________________

Top
#17696 - 04/25/06 11:06 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: drkodos]
drkodos Offline
addict

Registered: 05/02/04
Posts: 674
Loc: Chattanooga, TN
NEWSFLASH:


The energy used to bring you this latest drkodos vaccuity is provided by the burning of fossil fuels.





Deliver lethal dosages of radiation to a Islamfascist or fundamentalist today so that we may surf tomorrow!!












Hey listen: That or allow your version of the ANTI-Christ, Georgie-Porgie, to open up oil fields in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico and other US strategic reserve spots.


Who said it better than those seminal philosophers of metaphysics, The Butthole Surfers

Surf, or Die.



Click here to support them and their art:


I have and that is why I take this opportunity to deliver unto you this message and hope you can vote as well with your dollars and support them. They are good dudes. Really, they are. And I bet they are very happy that I am using this forum to remind you who the fuck they are to begin with or possibly even bring them to some people's attention for the very first time.


I'm not sure myself, but I am open to discussion on the issues.




Your turn.





_________________________

Top
#17697 - 04/25/06 11:46 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: drkodos]
phlan Offline

Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/11/00
Posts: 2778
Loc: Gardiner, NY
I'm surfing, on heroin.
_________________________
Support Your Local Farmer!

Top
#17698 - 06/13/06 10:30 AM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: mworking]
oenophore Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5981
Loc: 212 land
You may have just convinced me that we will be at war wih Iran shortly!

_________________________

Top
#35096 - 01/06/08 05:06 AM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
Daniel Offline
veteran

Registered: 05/23/01
Posts: 1515
 Originally Posted By: Daniel
Am I the only one more worried about Pakistan than Iran?

This is one situation where I wish my concerns hadn't turned out to be valid.

Top
#35097 - 01/06/08 11:57 AM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
oenophore Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5981
Loc: 212 land
As the Chinese would say, we're living in "interesting times."
_________________________

Top
#47304 - 08/03/09 09:44 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
oenophore Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5981
Loc: 212 land
Originally Posted By: Daniel
1. My understanding is that international law allows nations to have nuclear power programs.

2. My understanding is that even if Iran is really aiming at building a bomb, it's not imminent. According to an expert on tonght's PBS Newshour, U.S. intelligence puts an Iranian nuke at 3 to 5 years away.

The issues surrounding Iran's possible acquisition of a nuclear bomb should be taken seriously, but I also think today's announcement should not be blown out of proportion. After all, there's really very little we can do about it on our own in the short term anyway.
Has the time come?
_________________________

Top
#47355 - 08/07/09 08:10 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: oenophore]
Daniel Offline
veteran

Registered: 05/23/01
Posts: 1515
"Has the time come?"

Maybe. According to "The Inheritance" by David Suskind, Iran's strategy was to have the know-how to build a nuke on short notice, which is what the linked article also says.

But so what? Is there much we or anyone else can do? I've read that a military strike would be hard to carry out, and even if successful it would only delay things a few years while radicalizing the leadership and giving it more support among the public. So it seems to me that the military option makes things worse, not better.

And prospects of getting Russia and China to support sanctions seem dim.

So I suspect we'll learn to live with the situation. I always thought the idea of Iran lobbing a nuke at Tel Aviv was pretty ludicrous since it would mean the end of the Iranian regime (I think even Russia and China would draw the line at that point). The greater danger is someone giving a bomb to some non-government actor. If anyone has ideas on that, I'm sure there are people in the Obama administration who would like to hear them....

Top
#47356 - 08/07/09 08:20 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
pedestrian Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/05/02
Posts: 2244
Loc: a heavily fortified bunker!
Apparently their nuclear infrastructure is too dispersed to be taken out with a single F16 strike, Israeli style. Too bad - such a strike could have been successful years ago.

Top
#47369 - 08/08/09 12:50 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Daniel]
Mark Heyman Offline
old hand

Registered: 12/23/99
Posts: 1123
Loc: South Jersey (Pinelands)
Originally Posted By: Oeno
"Has the time come?"


Originally Posted By: Daniel
Maybe. According to "The Inheritance" by David Suskind, Iran's strategy was to have the know-how to build a nuke on short notice, which is what the linked article also says.


I think we'd be relatively happy with accurate knowlege that they would limit themselves to the ability to to build a nuke on short notice. What we wory most about is that one stored soemwhere will get into the "wrong" hands.

Originally Posted By: Daniel
Is there much we or anyone else can do? ... a military strike ... would only delay things a few years while radicalizing the leadership and giving it more support among the public...


Agreed


Edited by Mark Heyman (08/08/09 01:23 PM)

Top
#47370 - 08/08/09 03:08 PM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Mark Heyman]
Daniel Offline
veteran

Registered: 05/23/01
Posts: 1515
Two items.

First, "The Inheritance" is by David Sanger (sorry about that).

Second, the Washington Post says there's an updated State Department intelligence bureau report stating that Iran is unlikely to have weapons grade uranium before 2013.

For an article critical of the efficacy of sanctions against Iran, try here.

Top
#51198 - 04/07/10 09:27 AM Re: Strange and Scary Thoughts [Re: Mark Heyman]
oenophore Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5981
Loc: 212 land

Top
Page 1 of 5 1 2 3 4 5 >


Moderator:  webmaster 
Sponsored