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#26674 - 01/15/07 04:00 PM At war with Iran? !!!
mworking Offline
old hand

Registered: 05/26/04
Posts: 764
When do you think we will be at war with Iran?
(Since I worded the question as I did you can say never.)

Since the conspirasist (me) has so little credibility read Ted Coppel’s analysis before you answer!
You can listen rather than read using the link – and I think it is more effective in this case.

My answer? I don’t know, but GW is as scary today as he has been in the past few years.


Bush Speech Hints at Possibility of War with Iran
Related NPR Stories
• Nov. 16, 2006
Koppel Documentary Examines View from Iran


All Things Considered, January 12, 2007 • It was easy enough to miss — buried, as it was, almost two-thirds of the way through the president's speech the other evening — but I think the United States is actively preparing for the possibility of war with Iran.
I've had several conversations in recent days with very senior U.S. military officers, retired and active duty; and what one of them said to me on Tuesday didn't fully resonate until I heard the president's speech on Wednesday. This one officer, who is in a position to know what the Pentagon's expectations are for that region, came right out and said that he wouldn't be surprised if the United States and Iran were at war before the end of 2007.
"At our instigation or theirs?" I asked.
"No, they would have to do something to provoke it," he said.
Now, it has long been an open secret here in Washington that there are still a few, very highly placed civilians in our government who remain determined to keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons and who are fully prepared to use military means to do so.
With that as context, listen again to what the president said Wednesday evening:
He said that success in Iraq requires taking steps against Iran and Syria:
"These two regimes are allowing terrorists and insurgents to use their territory to move in and out of Iraq. Iran is providing material support for attacks on American troops. We will disrupt the attacks on our forces. We will interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria. Add we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq."
Now, that is hardly a declaration of war; but then President Bush went on to list some of the other steps he has ordered: the deployment, to the region, of an additional aircraft carrier and the strike group that goes with it, and also the deployment of Patriot air-defense systems — none of it particularly useful for fighting insurgents in al-Anbar province or Shiite militias in Sadr City. But if you were expecting a showdown with Iran, now that's another matter.

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#26675 - 01/15/07 11:36 PM Re: At war with Iran? !!! [Re: mworking]
felix m Offline
journeyman

Registered: 05/01/06
Posts: 63

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#26676 - 01/16/07 10:55 AM Re: At war with Iran? !!! [Re: felix m]
oenophore Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5970
Loc: 212 land
As the above links suggest, destroying Iran's potential nuclear weapons capability is best left to Israel.
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#26677 - 01/17/07 03:43 PM Re: At war with Iran? !!! [Re: mworking]
quanto_the_mad Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 05/14/02
Posts: 2628
Loc: brooklyn
I doubt we'll go to war with Iran. It looks to me that this is exactly what Bush wants, rumors that we are going to attack Iran. Bush isn't trying to fool us. He's not trying to fool anyone. He's rattling his saber, trying to intimidate the Iranian people.

The Iranian people have the most to lose here. They know that Bush has said they were #2 in the Axis of Evil. They know we attacked #3, and that they are next on the list. They know that the last thing before the US attacked Iraq was the loss of support from China and Russia. They know that Ahmadinejad's stance on nukes has lost the support of China and Russia, which almost gives Bush a green light.
They see the devastation in Iraq, and know that they could end up the same way, losing everything.

Ahmadinejad lost a lot of support in the December elections. But not enough to back off the nukes. So Bush asks for a buildup of troops. He moves carriers into the gulf. He wants the rumors of war, so he doesn't confirm it but doesn't deny it.

I think that if Ahmadinejad doesn't back down, there will probably be air strikes on the border, under the guise of "preventing the flow of arms to insurgents", but everyone will assume it's to soften the border for an oncoming ground assault. I hope that Ahmadinejad backs down at that point, or the people call for his resignation. If not, then we might have no choice having the bluff called. But I don't think it will go that far, I think Ahmadinejad will capitulate.
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#26678 - 01/17/07 05:13 PM Re: At war with Iran? !!! [Re: quanto_the_mad]
alicex4 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 07/05/00
Posts: 3400
"I think Ahmadinejad will capitulate"

I disagree. He's had it in for the US ever since the Carter administration when Ahmadinejad was part of the hostage crisis in 1979. He won't back down, he has no reaso to do it.

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#26679 - 01/17/07 05:48 PM Re: At war with Iran? !!! [Re: alicex4]
chazman Offline
old hand

Registered: 02/07/02
Posts: 944
Quote:

"I think Ahmadinejad will capitulate"

I disagree. He's had it in for the US ever since the Carter administration when Ahmadinejad was part of the hostage crisis in 1979. He won't back down, he has no reaso to do it.



and is on a world tour visiting wealthy anti-American nations to bolster his country in the face of sanctions/war from us. A $2 Billion investment fund with Chávez? To quote the guy who called Bush the Devil:
Quote:

“Welcome, fighter for just causes,” Mr. Chávez said in a speech here before the National Assembly, describing Mr. Ahmadinejad as a “revolutionary” and a “brother.”



Ahmadinejad is much smarter than W... I fear we are heading for ugly times as a nation and W is flat out to blame. What really scares me is that W knows history will write him off as possibly the worst president ever so he has nothing to lose... he's not going to go out as a lame duck... he will load both both six shooters and go out in a blaze of "glory" in these last two years...

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#26680 - 01/17/07 07:45 PM Re: At war with Iran? !!! [Re: alicex4]
pda Offline
addict

Registered: 08/30/01
Posts: 621
Loc: Bergen County NJ
"I think Ahmadinejad will capitulate"

I disagree. He's had it in for the US ever since the Carter administration when Ahmadinejad was part of the hostage crisis in 1979. He won't back down, he has no reaso to do it.


I don't follow that reasoning. They did back down in 1980 just as Carter left office. Maybe it will take Bush leaving office for them to back down again.

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#26681 - 01/17/07 08:00 PM Re: At war with Iran? !!! [Re: quanto_the_mad]
oenophore Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5970
Loc: 212 land
From the Jan. 16 NY Times

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States on Tuesday criticized Russia's sale and delivery of anti-aircraft missile systems to Iran, saying the move sent the wrong signal.

``We don't think that it's an appropriate signal to be sending to the government of Tehran at this time, particularly when they are under U.N. sanctions for trying to develop a nuclear weapon, and when they continue to be in defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions,'' State Department spokesman Tom Casey said of the sale.

Russia also said it would consider further requests by Tehran for defensive weapons.

Russian arms sales and nuclear cooperation with Iran have strained relations with Washington, which suspects Tehran of using a nuclear power program as a guise for building an atomic bomb. Iran says it is for peaceful power purposes.

Last month, the United Nations passed a resolution imposing restrictions on Iran's trade in sensitive nuclear materials and technology, aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

Casey said Washington had discussed with Moscow the sale of military items to Tehran on a number of occasions and the Bush administration would continue to make its views known.

``We also believe as well that we certainly don't want to see any kind of lethal aid or assistance given to any country that's a state sponsor of terror. And as we've said, Iran is the leading state sponsor in the world (of terrorism),'' he said.

Casey acknowledged there was not a ``blanket ban'' in the U.N. Security Council resolutions related to conventional weapons transfers to Iran.

Moscow says the sanctions do not apply to the missile systems, which are designed to shoot down aircraft, missiles and other weapons at medium and low altitudes.

Washington last year imposed sanctions on leading Russian arms firms over arms sales to Iran and Syria.

=================================================
From the Jan. 17 NY Times

By REUTERS
Published: January 17, 2007
Filed at 9:52 a.m. ET

MADRID (Reuters) - Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad believes neither Israel nor the United States would dare attack the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program, a Spanish newspaper quoted him on Wednesday as saying.

The Iranian president was responding to a question about an article in Britain's Sunday Times on January 7 that said Israel had secret plans to destroy Iran's uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons.

``They well know the power of the Iranian people. I don't think they would ever dare to attack us, neither them nor their masters. They won't do such a stupid thing,'' Ahmadinejad told El Mundo during a visit to Nicaragua, referring to Israel.

Conservative Iranian leaders, such as Ahmadinejad, see Israel as a stooge of the United States in the Middle East.

Iran does not recognize Israel and Ahmadinejad has previously called for it to be ``wiped off the map.''

``That regime wants to hurt the Iranian people. They have many dreams but they are not all powerful,'' said the Iranian leader.

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, echoed the president's comments in Tehran when asked about the possibility of an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

``We have considered all the options and don't take these things that they say too seriously. They have enough brains not to carry out such mindless acts,'' Larijani was quoted as saying by Iran's official IRNA news agency on Wednesday.

Israel has refused to rule out pre-emptive military action against Iran on the lines of its 1981 air strike against an atomic reactor in Iraq, although many analysts believe Iran's nuclear facilities are too much for Israel to destroy alone.

Asked about whether he wants to see Israel destroyed, Ahmadinejad avoided a direct answer, but seemed to refer to an earlier statement in which had said that Israel would be wiped out ``just as the Soviet Union was wiped out.''

``Where is the Soviet Union?'' he told El Mundo, ``It has disappeared.''

The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously last month to impose sanctions on Iran to try to stop its uranium enrichment program, which Tehran insists is peaceful.

The United States, which suspects Iran hopes to develop nuclear weapons, says it wants a diplomatic solution to the deadlock but military force remains an option.

Israel has said it will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.
=================================================

It seems that Mr. Ahmadinejad rattles a saber too.
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#26682 - 01/19/07 04:23 PM Re: At war with Iran? !!! [Re: oenophore]
felix m Offline
journeyman

Registered: 05/01/06
Posts: 63

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#26683 - 01/22/07 01:36 PM Re: At war with Iran? !!! [Re: chazman]
mworking Offline
old hand

Registered: 05/26/04
Posts: 764
Quote:

I disagree. He's had it in for the US ever since the Carter administration when Ahmadinejad was part of the hostage crisis in 1979. He won't back down, he has no reaso to do it.




Don't know if is true and it is to my surprise but our media is reporting that Ahmadinejad is loosing support!

Quote:

I fear we are heading for ugly times as a nation and W is flat out to blame.



True.

Quote:

What really scares me is that W knows history will write him off as possibly the worst president ever




Here I have to disagree. W is still hoping to "win" the Iraq war - whatever that means.
Perhaps he would like to use Bagdad as a base from which to attack Iran.

Quote:

he has nothing to lose... he's not going to go out as a lame duck... he will load both both six shooters and go out in a blaze of "glory" in these last two years...



Whatever the reason, he is certainly doing his dammedest to escalate the current war. Perhaps in truth Iraq isn’t even stable enough to get the supplies we really need in via land, hence his desire to “build up our forces”

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