It's about control, not production. Production levels in the US are somewhere around post WWII levels right now. Also, I've heard but not confirmed that they are selling Alaskan oil overseas.
It's about keeping the price of gas high, so they have this as a selling point to invade Iran and other oil countries. It's about building up mercenary armies to fight these wars if they can't get the numbers from the general population. This is way more calculated then any of us realize.
Oil production levels in the US are low because there is very little easily accessible oil left in the US. Whatever stuff that's left is harder to extract, and doing so would raise the price. If it were cheaper to get it here than to import it, we would get it here.
Even if it were true that Alaskan oil is being exported, it wouldn't matter. Oil is a truly global commodity, and the price is set by global demand and global supply. If Alaskan oil is being exported, that supply would bring down the price of oil overall--including the massive amounts of oil we'd need to import regardless of whether we kept all the Alaskan oil for ourselves or not.
I don't buy the theory that the US is invading other countries to take oil off the market and keep prices high. Such actions are motivating polices to get us off of oil; lower demand in the long term will not increase profits (and it may force the price to drop).
There are many far simpler explanations for high oil prices. There have been disruptions in places other than Iraq (where production today is at about pre-war levels). The demand in China and India is going up substantially. As for US gas prices, there's a bottleneck at refineries which are operating at capacity. The dollar is weak, so all imports, including oil, get relatively more expensive.
And there is plenty of evidence that Feith, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, and many others who pushed for the Iraq war were true believers in the neocon fantasy of using Iraq as a beachhead for a democratic transformation of the Middle East. And when you've got true believers, those beliefs exacerbate the tendencies we all have to accept data that support our view and reject what does not (such as with WMDs).
Yes, some conspiracy theories are plausible, but many theories are plausible; the ones that have credibility have to be backed up by evidence more than speculation.