Shout Box

Who's Online
1 registered (1 invisible), 12 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Page 1 of 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 >
Topic Options
#37640 - 06/06/08 03:28 PM Prime example of the Oil price circus.
Smike Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 05/01/01
Posts: 3143
Loc: in your backyard
WTF, when does outright speculative trading being done by Morgan Stanley (I don’t have the exact data in front, but my understanding is they have moved large amounts into Oil commodities recently) while they make public statements like this today cross the line? (Full well knowing that such statements influence market trading)

“Also contributing to the surge: Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) analyst Ole Slorer released a report saying that he expected a "short-term spike in oil prices," as high as $150 a barrel by July 4.”


To me that is a clear violation in market influence.

And you know who the biggest losers are? The average consumers around the world. Oil will never be cheap again (for a host of other fundamental supply / demand reasons), but he recent ‘super spike’ is a joke on free economic trade principles given this circus that continues in commodities trading.


http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200806051748DOWJONESDJONLINE000875_FORTUNE5.htm

Top
#37642 - 06/06/08 04:28 PM Re: Prime example of the Oil price circus. [Re: Smike]
crackers Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/21/01
Posts: 3424
Loc: pdx
oh shit. i agree with mike about something economic. oh shit. Quick mike, trot out your support of the Army's sunspot theory! ;\)

Top
#37643 - 06/06/08 04:58 PM Re: Prime example of the Oil price circus. [Re: Smike]
oenophore Online   confused
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5967
Loc: 212 land
What I haven't seen much in the "mainstream media" is news of a possible push for large-scale oil shale development and coal-to-liquid-fuel conversion. In my ignorance, I suspect that the floor to which petroleum price may drop after bursting of its price bubble is lower than the break-even price of such synthetic fuel products. Recall the creation of a Synfuels company in the seventies after a large price jump followed by a price collapse in the early eighties, making such an enterprise unprofitable, dooming Synfuels.
_________________________

Top
#37649 - 06/06/08 05:35 PM Re: Prime example of the Oil price circus. [Re: oenophore]
Smike Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 05/01/01
Posts: 3143
Loc: in your backyard
Yes that is part of the issue in that we the consumers loses.

We pay inflated prices for oil products while not getting the full benefits at that price for future development and alternatives in fuel.

The industry will not (rightfully so) make long term development decisions based on the current high price. I would suspect based on what I have read that major oil company’s future development decisions are being based on oil holding in the range of 70-110 per barrel. (As they know the price above those levels is an artificial bubble)

Now I watch those shit heads in congress grill Oil company execs saying they are not spending enough on development based on current prices. They should be instead grilling the ones that control the commodities market. You wait, the most embarrassing is yet to come as foreign economies push for a crack down on the US commodities market. They are already telling us to get our shit together regarding these matters now.

Top
#37679 - 06/09/08 03:47 PM Re: Prime example of the Oil price circus. [Re: Smike]
Smike Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 05/01/01
Posts: 3143
Loc: in your backyard
The Whitehouse and congress, still have their heads up their ass and show no signs they have a clue as to the current conditions that are creating the price situation.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/09/bush.congress/index.html

Top
#37680 - 06/09/08 03:51 PM Re: Prime example of the Oil price circus. [Re: Smike]
pedestrian Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/05/02
Posts: 2244
Loc: a heavily fortified bunker!
Fix the falling dollar first... it's time to cut out all this deficit spending that is driving inflation. Unfortunately neither the Democrats nor the Republicans are putting that option on the table this election year.

Top
#37681 - 06/09/08 03:52 PM Re: Prime example of the Oil price circus. [Re: Smike]
Dillbag Offline
old hand

Registered: 05/02/06
Posts: 1130
Loc: "The Town"
Smike you need to get out and climb... You've had too much time to read!

Your spelling is improving too! It's like that Simpson's episode when Barney quits drinking and becomes crazy smart...
_________________________
...anethum graveolens cucumis sativus!

Top
#37682 - 06/09/08 04:10 PM Re: Prime example of the Oil price circus. [Re: Smike]
oenophore Online   confused
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5967
Loc: 212 land
Smike, what would you have governments do about the problem?
_________________________

Top
#37684 - 06/09/08 04:32 PM Re: Prime example of the Oil price circus. [Re: oenophore]
Smike Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 05/01/01
Posts: 3143
Loc: in your backyard
Regarding Ped: Since oil is traded in US funds and the dollar is weak, that absolutely plays a role. But look at the % changes in the devaluation of the dollar over the last 12 months as compared to the increase in the price of oil. YTD changes in the dollar run from about 6% - 8% depending on the currently used as a benchmark. Crude Oil increase YTD near 55% The two do not align (not that they should, as other factors are at play, but the discrepancy can not be logically explained by world demand / supply issues) So what you are left with a massive growing bubble on the commodities market. Except unlike the tech bubble and housing bubble, this one smacks everyone across the board.

The biggest worry is that the accelerated speculative run of oil will trigger a much longer and deeper recession. (A.K.A the tipping point)

I believe something as simple as government statements saying something to the effect of clamping down and possible investigation into the commodities markets will fulfill the current need to stop the runaway train in oil prices and stabilize the market. Russia is already asking this of the US.

Regarding Dillhole: yes you are correct… on the climbing part, but I did not stop drinking.

O-NO - See statment above.

Top
#37803 - 06/13/08 04:24 PM Re: Prime example of the Oil price circus. [Re: Smike]
oenophore Online   confused
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5967
Loc: 212 land
I believe something as simple as government statements saying something to the effect of clamping down and possible investigation into the commodities markets will fulfill the current need to stop the runaway train in oil prices and stabilize the market.

Congress has done this sort of thing before, grilling corporate CEOs and excoriating them. Afterward it's business as usual.
_________________________

Top
Page 1 of 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 >


Moderator:  webmaster 
Sponsored