Yes folks, it is that time again. It is time to cast your vote for the first frost of the Gunks season. The location of the first frost should be my front lawn, located conveniently just 5 miles west of the steel bridge. It is roughly the same elevation as the base of the Trapps. The date is the morning of the the frost, not the night before. Price is Right rules apply here, so whoever is closest without going over wins. Once a date is picked, it can not be picked again, so keep guessing. The lucky winner will receive their name in bold faced irridescent color at the bottom of the post...who could want for anything more! You'll also be given the satisfaction of knowing you have truly magnificant insight and your name will be forever synonymous with accurate weather forecasting. So, good luck contestants, and may the frost be with you!

RR

P.S. I forgot to mention that every qualified entry will have to mail me a $30 registration fee before it becomes eligible to win...he he he. Gotta pay for my new ice tools somehow

Your lawn will have frost before the trapps though! It's on the side that is always colder...

I say October 23rd!

October 28

Oct 3th.

Just after the tropical monsoon and then either a near miss or direct hit by a Hurricane in New England.

RR, whats your guess?
I'll say $1.

I mean Oct 14.

Well the Daks had the first frost on September 18, so it wont be long now. Im gonna go out on a limb and say the morning of October 11.

I'm going with Oct. 21

10/13/2008

October 17th

Oct 4th

10/18/08

Alright... So the current bets are:

October 3 - Smike
October 4 - JenRed
October 11 - browndog2
October 13 - alicex4
October 14 - empicard
October 17 - RangerRob
October 18 - Bolt_Skytop
October 21 - J@son
October 23 - Dillbag
October 28 - chip

September 30

October 1st (sorry if it shows up twice, posted earlier today and it hasn't shown up)

10/8

I had to wipe the frost off my windshield a couple of mornings ago!

Updated:

October 1 - Doug
October 3 - Smike
October 4 - JenRed
October 8 - Aya
October 11 - browndog2
October 13 - alicex4
October 14 - empicard
October 17 - RangerRob
October 18 - Bolt_Skytop
October 21 - J@son
October 23 - Dillbag
October 28 - chip
October 30 - d-elvis

October 15

Hey, I'm September 30th dilless wonder

Sorry... Didn't think anyone was THAT optimistic!

New updates:

September 30 - d-elvis
October 1 - Doug
October 3 - Smike
October 4 - JenRed
October 8 - Aya
October 11 - browndog2
October 13 - alicex4
October 14 - empicard
October 15 - pedestrian
October 17 - RangerRob
October 18 - Bolt_Skytop
October 21 - J@son
October 23 - Dillbag
October 28 - chip

October 16

If it looks like it's still too warm, I'll have to sneak up there with a tank of liquified CO2 just to speed things along.

I believe that I am the optimist in this case, as I would enjoy a nice long fall ROCK climbing season. Ice is nice but will have to wait it's turn.

Oct. 10th.

Oct. 19th. 11 months before the rest of my life.

So you expect to die next September? As for the frost, que sera sera.

If there's some event coming up that causes you to think that way, perhaps you should really reconsider the going through with the event?

oct 12

Why is everyone taking acdnyc's statement as a negative? Maybe he's looking forward to the "rest of his life"...?

Sounds like he's getting married to me.

And the current listing is:

September 30 - d-elvis
October 1 - Doug
October 3 - Smike
October 4 - JenRed
October 8 - Aya
October 10 - Julie
October 11 - browndog2
October 12 - learningtolead
October 13 - alicex4
October 14 - empicard
October 15 - pedestrian
October 16 - timh
October 17 - RangerRob
October 18 - Bolt_Skytop
October 19 - acdnyc
October 21 - J@son
October 23 - Dillbag
October 28 - chip

Because most Americans usually don't use that kind of construct in every-day speech.

No, It's like the Geritol ad, this is the first day of the rest of your life.

Wow ! You're old enough to remember Geritol ads ?

Me too.

TS

Yeah I am. "My wife, I think I'll keep her."

October 19th:)

i'll pick october 9th

Ok 2 down 1 to go on my predictions.

Looks like D-Elvis is in trouble...

Updated standings:

September 30 - d-elvis
October 1 - Doug
October 3 - Smike
October 4 - JenRed
October 8 - Aya
October 9 - fallenglass
October 10 - Julie
October 11 - browndog2
October 12 - learningtolead
October 13 - alicex4
October 14 - empicard
October 15 - pedestrian
October 16 - timh
October 17 - RangerRob
October 18 - Bolt_Skytop
October 19 - Chris H
October 19 - acdnyc
October 21 - J@son
October 23 - Dillbag
October 28 - chip

So lets see what the forecast looks like (even knowing it's usually useless )

http://www.accuweather.com/us/ny/kerhonk...eler=0&metric=0

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php...Field2=-74.2959

Looks like Oct 5th is the best bet as this moment.

RR how is Smike's pick for Friday looking?

And the current standings...

September 30 - d-elvis
October 1 - Doug
October 3 - Smike
October 4 - JenRed
October 8 - Aya
October 9 - fallenglass
October 10 - Julie
October 11 - browndog2
October 12 - learningtolead
October 13 - alicex4
October 14 - empicard
October 15 - pedestrian
October 16 - timh
October 17 - RangerRob
October 18 - Bolt_Skytop
October 19 - Chris H
October 19 - acdnyc
October 21 - J@son
October 23 - Dillbag
October 28 - chip

ok, yesterday's low temp according to
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSWF/2008/9/30/DailyHistory.html

was 55F.
we've got a little bit. still warm.

Two people with the same date, 19th. What's the tie breaker?

So it was cold here this morning, but too cloudy to get low enough. Looks like Jen might take it for the 4th. Frost advisor for sat am:

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.ph...=Frost+Advisory

Updated standings...

September 30 - d-elvis
October 1 - Doug
October 3 - Smike
October 4 - JenRed
October 8 - Aya
October 9 - fallenglass
October 10 - Julie
October 11 - browndog2
October 12 - learningtolead
October 13 - alicex4
October 14 - empicard
October 15 - pedestrian
October 16 - timh
October 17 - RangerRob
October 18 - Bolt_Skytop
October 19 - Chris H
October 19 - acdnyc
October 21 - J@son
October 23 - Dillbag
October 28 - chip

Shoot, I was in my van Friday night Sat morning and I thought Jenred took the date. There was frost on the grass where I was Sat am. What a kick ass weekend!

If Mr. Freeze doesn't get there tonight it looks like a good week or more till he comes near again.

No frost this weekend at Che RR. Tomorrow morning is a very strong possibility. As of now no one has the 7th as a date. Sorry, no refunds or exchanges.

Um from the rules "so whoever is closest without going over wins." so that would mean Jen is still in contention.

Ah yes...Smikey is correcto

Price is Right Rule!

My guess is if it doesn't frost tonight then it won't happen until the 20th...

Tonight? Did it not freeze up this morning?

We had frost this morning

Smike its was 12:30am when I wrote that...

Rob... What's the verdict? Was there frost this morning?

yes there was Frost. now bring on the Snow

Last year first snowfall on the rige was Nov 9th.

Nice photos Mike.

So, should we have a first snowfall contest ?

I'll supply the prize:

2 draft beers of your choosing at Gilded Otter, mutually convenient time to be arranged.

Say, date of first measurable snowfall (trace snowfall does not count). Closest w/o going over ?

Tim

ha ha i just posted on supertaco how much i dislike photos with a road/ roadkill and photos taken with a 1 minute walk from the car. "hey let's hang a picture of 44/55 in snow above our bed."

check the Patterson’s Pellet photo on my website it's from the same day Nov. 9th

Uhm.... so who wins??? I don't understand the "without going over" thing.....

It's just like the Price is Right...

Anyway, if RR ever confirms the frost on his lawn! Talus I don't think you checked RR's front lawn for frost...

But if RR ever confirms and it was indeed this morning... that means that JenRed is our winner!

Oh so sorry. Because of a slight technicality, Jen is not our winner. The contest rules clearly state that there must be frost on the front lawn. There was frost on the hood of the truck...but alas, no frost on the grass out in the open. Thanks for playing Jen. You still get a very nice consolation prize. Oh wait...no you don't. Game is still on. There is the possibility again for frost tonight.

RR

P.S. This just in. It has been confirmed without question that Talus is now the biggest asshole on the internet. Various Independent sources, along with his blatantly arrogant posts leave little to doubt. yes, Talus is a Dick

OK... So, based on the confirmation of frost/no frost this morning here are the current standings:

September 30 - d-elvis
October 1 - Doug
October 3 - Smike
October 4 - JenRed
October 8 - Aya
October 9 - fallenglass
October 10 - Julie
October 11 - browndog2
October 12 - learningtolead
October 13 - alicex4
October 14 - empicard
October 15 - pedestrian
October 16 - timh
October 17 - RangerRob
October 18 - Bolt_Skytop
October 19 - Chris H
October 19 - acdnyc
October 21 - J@son
October 23 - Dillbag
October 28 - chip

Dickbag frost is frost wherever it happens. and happend to be on the ridge this morning

and RR you're a lazy f ing puss face. maybe if got up early enough you would have noticed frost on your lawn. go ask for beta on how to punch your way out of a paper bag. roadkill lover

Ummm... Talus, I resent that comment!

I am only posting the standings based upon RR's determination of First Frost... According to the guidlines laid out!

SO FµCK OFF!

you mean gheylines dbag so Ranger Rick can say whenever he feels like saying there was frost, even though CLEARLY there was frost this morning

This isn't life or death you know. For someone who's not a contestant you're awfully invested in this thing.

Frost is a very fickle thing..........8 AM- No frost on my windshield here along the Rondout in High Falls but right next door in an open field where I picked the last of the yummy raspberries an hour later there was still frost.
-M

Why does everything with men have to degenerate into a pissing contest Talus?

we all have pee-pees and we like to pee. who doesn't? why, if we were all to stand together, we would literally have a pee-ing contest to see who could pee the furthest.
or a "pissing contest" as you called it alice.

I want a penis!

I want a penis! It works better at aiming than what I've got now.

Anyone who's seen your posts in the Politics forum has known this for a while!

Accommodate me!

I am watching the debate, and there is no leader. I'm fat, you're stupid, who cares. Where is the plan....


I think I need to be self reliant, no help from DC.

Rob what???? Come-on. I'd say Jens got it, penis or no penis....

Anyway you need to get that lawn checked:

(33 degrees in Poughkeepsie and that's exactly 400' lower in elevation)

...................................

...THE POUGHKEEPSIE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 7 2008...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2008


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
......................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 63 300 PM 66 -3
MINIMUM 33 600 AM 41 -8

Alice, I know where you might be able to borrow three penises (is that correct?)

See Molly for Dillbag's- she carries it in her purse (I'm told).
See Mary for Smike's. She seems to have taken it away from him so long ago it might be broken now, wherever she keeps it.
See Michelle's for Empicards. I heard she keeps it in the night stand and strapped a 9V battery on it.

Good luck.

STUPID STUPID debate.

it's just past 8am and I'm dying with laughter-love it. I still aim for random targets in the urinal when peeing...

Should I be worried that she NEVER carries a purse? In fact... I haven't seen one in years!

This contest is one of those scams... next your going to ask for my PIN number

Umm... D... It's just PIN, not PIN number cause that's redundent!

You mean like using the PIN number in an ATM machine?

And the NY Lottery's MegaMillions game.

Game is still on, and there is still plenty of slots available for those of you who have not picked a date yet!

Game on? It snowed 5" in PA last night.

I had the 19th first?

So, RR did you win this morning or what? How's that Ash treating you?

I'd have to say the 19th WINS!!! We didn't have frost on the ground at our house until today.

If RR concurs, then it's hats off to acdnyc!

As it turns out, there was a frost on Saturday morning, the 28th. Guess who wins?? There have been inversion layers on the ridge recently, which explains why some more southeryl locales got frost before we did here. Evidenced yesterday morning by the small amounts of frost on the ridge, and heavy widespread frost in ther Rondout Valley. But the criteria for the contest was met on the morning of the 18th, witnessed by Smike, Dillbag, and Learningtolead. So I win!!!!!

RR

Now I'm confused the 28th? I'm assuming you meant the 18th? If that is the case then RR I'd have to say that Bolt_Skytop is the winner, you had the 17th.

All I witnessed is someone insistent that he had won...

Ditto...AND we all know I don't get out of bed before 10

You're a little late. At least a couple of weeks ago...

Kim
Saugerties, NY

not according to Ranger Noob's gheylines

Boo - acdny beat me to the 19th, but I guess it doesn't matter because RR won his own game

Oh Crap...it seems I did have the 17th. I've been beat at my own game. Bolt Skytop won. As soon as he sends me his $30 dollar registration he will receive the contest prize. A $10 gift certificate to some place he will never visit anyway!

RR

And so, the world once again spins properly on its axis.

Bolt Skytop won. As soon as he sends me his $30 dollar registration he will receive the contest prize. A $10 gift certificate to some place he will never visit anyway!

So let's applaud Bolt_Skytop for his accurate prediction and commend RangerRob for his generosity.

So, now what? When's the first snowfall?

I won! I won!

Where's my damned registration money!? All you freeloaders played and never paid. See if I ever hold this contest again!

Now that the silly 1st frost on the right side of my lawn after the 3rd full moon, between 8:00- 8:10 am is over with, the next order of business is

Snow, the first being Oct 29th and could be a significant event for portions of the NE (Even on RR 15’ X 10’ front lawn.) or, I could be predictably completely wrong.

You need to pick a specific location, or everyone chucklehead on the net will be saying...ohh ohh it snowed in my town last night!

RR

Ok the whole dam ridge..in white.. Good enough?

Not for my offer of 2 free beers at the Otter for the winner. Way to general.

In that post I suggested any measurable snow at the closest weather station (i.e. anything over "trace"). I leave it up to the locals to determine the most logical "official" weather station.

I don't want my $10 prize dependent on some half-drunken hangover-induced hallucination of fluffy white stuff on somebody's garbage can lid

TS

I resemble that remark

Don’t worry, this isn’t going to be a “gee did it snow a few flurries and melt by 8am?” type of event. I’m saying by Wednesday snow, and 3-6” of it on the whole ridge and maybe a decent amount in the valleys.

Optimist!

National Weather service is a bit more optimistic then even me: "8-16 inches"

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.ph...ter+Storm+Watch

Still no fluffy white stuff. However it is PERFECT hypothermia weather right now

RR

Down in South East PA at the moment, and its been snowing hard for the last 2 hours, starting to cover the ground now.

First big flakes are starting here at 2pm.

cool...its just rain/sleet here in Stone Ridge!

We have 2" to 4" in SE PA now and its still snowing.

So how much did it snow last night? Reports show 20" in some of the peaks of the Catskills, with about 1" in the valleys.

We didn't get any snow in Accord... maybe some flurries. I'm not sure about the Ridge though

The top of the ridge got a coating, but it is pretty much all gone now. I don't even think it was measurable. However, it is still flurrying lightly

If you read Smike's link you probably realize that climbing could be a bit dicey at the Beer Walls this weekend. The Daks have picked up a foot of snow and it's still coming down. Over here in Watertown, we're still getting lake affected and I'm measuring just under 12 inches on my deck. 4WD weather, for sure.

I was wrong. Anything above about 1300 feet got snow on the ridge. Cragsmoor and Sam's Point got about 5 inches.

Nailed that one, now where my beer?

Well, I could weasel out by saying no local picked a weather station to use or that Smike was the only contestant, but I won't do that

By the power vested in me by, well nobody really...but because I still have $10 to spare even with the horrible market downturn, I declare Smike the winner of the 2 draft beers at the Galvanized Muskrat, date to be determined by mutual consent (but probably next spring considering I may not make it up there again until then).

Mike, shoot me an e-mail. We might be close enough to meet somewhere more local to Philly.

Tim

WOW! RR admitted he was wrong on gunks.com...

This is a historic moment!

If there is only one winner, why do you need more then one entry? (as long as thats the winning one )

Snowed real hard up on Overlook Mt. Wed night. But not the first snow. That was last week - but it was gone in a couple of days.

Edit: Actually they got 17" up in the high mountains on Wed. Ice is here. Opps, no it's not. Forget what I said... Oh, sh*t, I blew it.