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#39570 - 09/08/08 03:05 AM Re: The Candidates [Re: Daniel]
Smike Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 05/01/01
Posts: 3143
Loc: in your backyard
Well given today's historic actions by the Fed in its take over of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and now being in control of $5 trillion in home Loans, the most important task is going to be getting this economy back in safe waters and stable to say the least.

Nether candidate has much to say about economic history so the most important factor for either will be who they bring with them to Washington to help sort out this mess.

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#39572 - 09/08/08 09:52 AM Re: The Candidates [Re: Daniel]
oenophore Online   confused
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5967
Loc: 212 land
There's a lot of debate about this. Given that there are so many non-racist reasons one could give not to support Obama, I don't see why people would decline to declare their opposition to a pollster out of fear of being seen as racist.

Nevertheless, there is the notorious Bradley Effect.
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#39574 - 09/08/08 12:59 PM Re: The Candidates [Re: oenophore]
Daniel Offline
veteran

Registered: 05/23/01
Posts: 1515
Nevertheless, there is the notorious Bradley Effect.

Yes, that's what I was addressing in my post: that the supposed motivation for the Bradley Effect (fear of being perceived as racist) doesn't make sense when people can come up with plenty of non-racist reasons for not supporting a minority candidate. And as the Wikipedia entry that you cited discusses, there's considerable debate over to its existence, and, if it exists, its extent:

"One of the more ardent critics of the acceptance of the Bradley effect as an accurate explanation for observed polling errors is Gary Langer, who serves as the director of polling for ABC News. Langer has described the Bradley effect as 'a theory in search of data.' He has argued that inconsistency of its appearance, particularly in more recent elections, casts doubt upon its validity as a theory."

Langer may be right or wrong. I'm just not going to make assumptions at this point.

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#39579 - 09/08/08 03:23 PM Re: The Candidates [Re: Daniel]
oenophore Online   confused
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5967
Loc: 212 land
If polls give Obama only a slight edge, his advocates would be justly anxious.
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#39581 - 09/08/08 04:00 PM Re: The Candidates [Re: oenophore]
pedestrian Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 08/05/02
Posts: 2244
Loc: a heavily fortified bunker!
Daniel, so you're implying that polls are probably accurate? Presumably the implication is that it's ok for NY voters to be complacent and stay home. Seems an irresponsible argument for a seemingly committed Democrat such as yourself. Anyway, a cursory glance at the history of the last two elections says that statistical sampling error never tells the whole story, lots of strange things happen with, for example, exit polls, things that are are inexplicable based on statistics alone.

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#39584 - 09/08/08 05:41 PM Re: The Candidates [Re: pedestrian]
Daniel Offline
veteran

Registered: 05/23/01
Posts: 1515
 Originally Posted By: pedestrian
Daniel, so you're implying that polls are probably accurate? Presumably the implication is that it's ok for NY voters to be complacent and stay home. Seems an irresponsible argument for a seemingly committed Democrat such as yourself.


I'm saying that even if there is a demonstrable Bradly effect, I'd have a hard time saying that New York is still not safely Democratic. I never said people should stay home; I'd like everyone to vote, but some will choose not to do so. I'm also saying that I don't think a few people casting protest votes or not voting will make a difference in this state. In other states, it may be a different story. And I'd be glad to change my views if it looks like things are tightening up towards Election Day.

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#39589 - 09/09/08 10:30 AM Re: The Candidates [Re: empicard]
oenophore Online   confused
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5967
Loc: 212 land
Well dear posters, you may ask where is that (*&%&$%$@#@^$ comic strip that the (*)*&$#%$#$ Oenophore usually posts in such threads. I won't disappoint you.

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#39602 - 09/10/08 10:04 AM Re: The Candidates [Re: oenophore]
AOR Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 08/27/04
Posts: 392
Here's one just as funny...!


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#39603 - 09/10/08 10:23 AM Re: The Candidates [Re: AOR]
oenophore Online   confused
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5967
Loc: 212 land
Something to offend one and all.
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#39695 - 09/12/08 04:14 PM Re: The Candidates [Re: MarcC]
Mim Online   content
old hand

Registered: 01/27/00
Posts: 999
Loc: Gunks
We can discuss 'till the cows come home that Obama's resume looks thin - however, if McCain drops dead, Palin would take the helm – and THAT is quite scary. You want to discuss thin resume?? Look at hers. If she was a guy, she NEVER would have been asked to take this job. The Republican played the gender card and that is utterly insulting and degrading – to all – American voters, and the other qualified candidates that didn’t get asked.
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