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#63366 - 03/28/12 12:40 AM The Climbing Game
donald perry Offline
veteran

Registered: 06/27/11
Posts: 1494
Loc: New Jersey
The forecast on weather.com for tomorrow is Rain showers in the morning then thundershowers in the afternoon. High 62F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

I think I can go climbing at Millbrook tomorrow on 5.12 and it will not be a waste of time.

I am willing bet $10.00 against any of you and your weathermen that the weather will be climbable tomorrow at Millbrook, and will not be a wash. Do I have any takers? Bets with me must be in before 12:00 PM tonight. Losers can mail me the money at my home address.


Edited by donald perry (03/28/12 12:42 AM)
_________________________
The Mohonk Mountain House and the Mohonk Preserve have done a great job protecting the environment thus far, but ... it's all down hill from here http://youtu.be/9AU8fMo8v4k.

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#63370 - 03/28/12 12:53 PM Re: The Climbing Game [Re: donald perry]
phlan Offline

Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/11/00
Posts: 2776
Loc: Gardiner, NY
I am not betting against you; I've been in an outrageously strong thunderstorm with very heavy rain on Millbrook, it is generally so steep we never felt a single drop while the rain was falling in curtains like a waterfall behind us. quite an experience. Rain will never hold you up at Millbrook. have fun on your 5.12!

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#63372 - 03/28/12 05:09 PM Re: The Climbing Game [Re: phlan]
RangerRob Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 06/06/00
Posts: 3763
Loc: Ulster County, NY
I love the fact that you felt the need to tell us how hard you will be climbing. That's just priceless

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#63374 - 03/28/12 05:17 PM Re: The Climbing Game [Re: RangerRob]
AOR Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 08/27/04
Posts: 392
Originally Posted By: RangerRob
I love the fact that you felt the need to tell us how hard you will be climbing. That's just priceless


Ditto...why is that?

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#63379 - 03/28/12 06:18 PM Re: The Climbing Game [Re: AOR]
donald perry Offline
veteran

Registered: 06/27/11
Posts: 1494
Loc: New Jersey
An easy grade can be irrelevant in wet conditions, I intended no tricks, no overhangs and no 12:00 PM. My intention for the game is to observe how weather forecasts play out on cliffs vulnerable to wet conditions where you cannot get up it if it is wet and very hard. Not that the climb is actually 5.12, just impossible when wet.

Today is a perfect example. Most people would have never went climbing in the first place, and the rest would have went home as soon as it started raining.


Edited by donald perry (03/29/12 12:10 AM)
_________________________
The Mohonk Mountain House and the Mohonk Preserve have done a great job protecting the environment thus far, but ... it's all down hill from here http://youtu.be/9AU8fMo8v4k.

Top
#63382 - 03/28/12 07:47 PM Re: The Climbing Game [Re: donald perry]
Adrian Offline
journeyman

Registered: 03/12/09
Posts: 73
Cheese!

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#63387 - 03/28/12 10:42 PM Re: The Climbing Game [Re: RangerRob]
oenophore Online   confused
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/24/01
Posts: 5934
Loc: 212 land
Originally Posted By: RangerRob
I love the fact that you felt the need to tell us how hard you will be climbing. That's just priceless
Maybe he meant 5:12 (am or pm.)
_________________________

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#63388 - 03/28/12 11:34 PM Re: The Climbing Game [Re: oenophore]
donald perry Offline
veteran

Registered: 06/27/11
Posts: 1494
Loc: New Jersey
Today March 28 there was blue sky this morning and bright sunshine. Then around 11:30 the sky turned black and there was steady rain thunder and lighting. The world looked like it was going to end. It rained everywhere for miles around and there was a little wind. But, after two hours the sun came out and everything became just as it was before.


Edited by donald perry (03/28/12 11:46 PM)
_________________________
The Mohonk Mountain House and the Mohonk Preserve have done a great job protecting the environment thus far, but ... it's all down hill from here http://youtu.be/9AU8fMo8v4k.

Top
#63389 - 03/28/12 11:46 PM Re: The Climbing Game [Re: donald perry]
retroscree Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 397
Originally Posted By: donald perry
Today March 28 there was blue sky this morning and bright sunshine. Then around 11:30 the sky turned black and there was steady rain thunder and lighting. The world looked like it was going to end. It rained everywhere for miles around and there was a little wind. But, after two hours the sun came out and everything was just as it was before.

So in fact it did indeed rain, with thunderstorms in the afternoon, as the weather forecast stated. What's more the forecaster gave a PoP of 60%, meaning there was a 60% chance of precipitation occurring at any particular location in the forecast area, so fairly accurate.

Mathematically, PoP is defined as follows:
PoP = C x A where "C" = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where "A" = the percent of the area that will receive measureable precipitation, if it occurs at all.

So... in the case of the forecast above, if the forecaster knows precipitation is sure to occur ( confidence is 100% ), he/she is expressing how much of the area will receive measurable rain. ( PoP = "C" x "A" or "1" times ".6" which equals .6 or 60%.)

But, most of the time, the forecaster is expressing a combination of degree of confidence and areal coverage. If the forecaster is only 50% sure that precipitation will occur, and expects that, if it does occur, it will produce measurable rain over about 80 percent of the area, the PoP (chance of rain) is 40%. ( PoP = .5 x .8 which equals .4 or 40%. )

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#63390 - 03/28/12 11:50 PM Re: The Climbing Game [Re: retroscree]
donald perry Offline
veteran

Registered: 06/27/11
Posts: 1494
Loc: New Jersey
I cannot figure all that out. Sometimes you can climb and sometimes you can't. The point of the bet is to guess if it is going to be a reasonable climbing day or not.


Edited by donald perry (03/28/12 11:51 PM)
_________________________
The Mohonk Mountain House and the Mohonk Preserve have done a great job protecting the environment thus far, but ... it's all down hill from here http://youtu.be/9AU8fMo8v4k.

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