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#65184 - 06/03/12 03:21 PM Re: Prescribed Burns [Re: Mark Heyman]
Advocacy group Offline
addict

Registered: 08/03/10
Posts: 653
Loc: New Paltz,Marbletown,Gardiner,...
Hey MarkHeyman, while we may have alienated some, our feeling is that there will always be people who are unreasonable, have an agenda, simply do not care, selfish, etc. Again, we are not trying to get you on our side, we are focused on the neighbors, locals and elected officials. If a few outside people get involved or engage us in some constructive dialog that helps us focus and hone our message so be it. But we can and enjoy sparring with the idiots as well. Again you get the dialog you deserve. If you treat us with respect we will reciprocate. If you turn it into a flame fest we can hang in that medium as well.
So back on topic. Fire is not part of the Northeast for the following reasons
1.lightning strikes account for less than 3% of all fires.
2. Lightning usually occurs during rain when the forest cannot burn
3. Most lightning in the northeast is not cloud to ground lightning it's cloud to cloud.
4. Take a look at our mountains and show me one area that has burned due to lightning in the past 100 years. If our forests depended on fire it would happen much more frequently.

3 people died and 29 houses were destroyed in Colorado this past march due to a prescribed burn that started out as a 50 ac burn. The same size as the duck pond burn.
_________________________
The MPNA is an advocacy group for adjacent neighbors of the Mohonk Preserve. In the event of a dispute with the Mohonk Preserve, we can offer assistance in obtaining experts in the following areas; Surveying, Lawyers, Title, expert witnesses, ancient document research, and Maps.

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#65185 - 06/03/12 03:25 PM Re: Prescribed Burns [Re: Advocacy group]
Advocacy group Offline
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Registered: 08/03/10
Posts: 653
Loc: New Paltz,Marbletown,Gardiner,...
DENVER — The Colorado State Forest Service conducted a 50-acre prescribed burn on March 22, part of a normal plan to consume fuel in the rugged, pine-filled foothills southwest of Denver. It wasn't far from site of the monstrous Hayman Fire 10 years ago, and this burn was a precaution.
Once the fire was out, crews patrolled the perimeter daily to make sure it stayed that way. And it was on one such patrol the hot afternoon of Monday, March 26, that they spotted an ember blown across the perimeter and lighting grass. What they hadn't done in all their methodical planning was ask for real-time weather forecasts that would have predicted vicious, swirling winds.
From there, a deadly cascade of missteps combined with the vagaries of wind and fire to produce another tragedy in the Rocky Mountains, new documents obtained this week show. The 6-square-mile blaze killed three people, destroyed dozens of homes near the small town of Conifer and raised questions about what could have been done to contain the human and material losses – questions that will be addressed by an out-of-state investigator.
"This is heartbreaking, and we are sorry," deputy state forester Joe Duda said.
"People up here want accountability," said resident Glenn Davis. "Telling me 'I'm sorry' doesn't really make a difference."
Volunteer firemen responding to the first reports of smoke couldn't talk to the state crew because it used a different radio frequency. One fire chief had to drive along the winding roads in the pine-dotted region to find out what was going on at the controlled burn site, losing precious minutes to act.
Dispatchers, too, were in the dark, reassuring some frightened residents as the smoke and winds gathered that events were under control. When authorities realized more than three hours later that, in fact, nothing was under control, they sent out waves of emergency evacuation telephone calls – some of which reached no one, while others went to out-of-state numbers.
Some early callers died in the inferno. Harried dispatchers hung up on other callers, too overwhelmed to respond.
It was 1:40 p.m. when the wind-blown ember ignited grass. Gusts would soon exceed 60 mph. The first evacuation orders wouldn't go out until 5:05 p.m.
Forest Service records show the controlled burn crew didn't ask for an updated special weather forecast – called a spot forecast – from the day of the burn until an hour after the burn reignited. Over that weekend the weather service had issued a red flag warning for dire fire conditions for the Conifer area, some 8,200 feet high in the Rockies.
"In the fire world we always have what we refer to as situational awareness, and as a burn boss who is leading crews, it is imperative that the burn boss is aware of the conditions, not only now, but what is going to be occurring in the future," said Chris Dicus, a professor of wildland fire fuels management at California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo, Calif.
"Are you looking for a small happy fire, or a large angry fire?" Dicus said. "The weather forecast you need will change based on what your objectives are."
Bill McLaughlin, chief of the Elk Creek Volunteer Fire Department, couldn't talk to the forest service that Monday because it was on a different radio frequency.
"We didn't know in advance which (radio) channel they were on," McLaughlin said of the state forest service crew.
He wasted precious minutes driving to the controlled burn to find out what happened. The map he was using was 18 years old – new maps are too expensive – and it didn't show newer homes that likely were in the line of fire.
"We were making some educated guesses on where exactly the structures were," he said.
Within 10 minutes, residents began calling the Jefferson County 911 system, worried about the smoke. Some were found dead in the aftermath.
One who called 911 was Ann Appel.
"It's blowing smoke right over my house," she said.
"Yeah, it's about 5 acres and growing, so they've got crews on the way," a dispatcher told her.
"OK. Thank you," Appel replied before hanging up.
Human remains believed to be Appel's were found days later.
"It's important to note that her call came in very early. That's why the response is what it is," sheriff's spokeswoman Jacki Kelley said.
The Appel family said sheriff's officials told them Appel didn't receive an evacuation call because her property was listed at the wrong address in Morrison, where the family had never lived.
Some residents report never knowing about the controlled burn, despite policies mandating the public be informed well in advance of such burns.
"We've got 79 mph winds out here, and they've got a controlled burn?" asked an incredulous Sam Lucas in one 911 call.
The bodies of Lucas, 77, and his wife, Linda, 76, were later found at their destroyed home.
Firefighters asked for evacuations shortly before 5 p.m. The first wave of automated calls ordering residents to evacuate was sent at 5:05 p.m. but went to a wrong list of phone numbers, said sheriff's spokesman Mark Techmeyer. "That was a user error on our end."
A new round of calls began at 5:23 p.m. But the first bad round of notifications exacerbated confusion in the dispatch center, which was overwhelmed with calls from people asking about evacuation notices and others reporting smoke and fire.
That exasperation came out in several frantic exchanges on 911.
"You can turn on your news if you want coverage of it," a dispatcher told one resident who called to find out if he was being evacuated.
One woman called to report smoke and haze.
"It wasn't a prescribed burn, was it?" she said.
"It was, but it's now not prescribed any further," the dispatcher said.
"If it's prescribed, it's way out of control," the caller said.
"Well I'm telling you that it was prescribed and it's no longer in control," the dispatcher said.
The confusion led to frantic escapes where in some areas day turned to night, embers flying like tracer bullets. Many roads in the area are winding, down to one lane, creating the potential for jams to safety and emphasizing the need to get out early in case of disaster. A sheriff's deputy trying to knock on doors got lost in the smoke, drove into a ditch, and called for help as flames overtook his car. He escaped unharmed.
"If they're saying there's a controlled burn and the state forest service is on the scene, we don't just create evacuations for a fire that has gone outside the perimeter," Kelley said later, emphasizing the downside of creating undue panic and the county's dependence, too, on reports from the scene.
Ultimately, residents of some 900 homes were evacuated amid rapidly changing weather conditions typical of Colorado's foothills and mountains, where wind speeds and temperatures can change drastically within a matter of minutes – and in this case pushed a fire quickly through narrow canyons and fuel-choked grassland now populated, despite its alpine setting, as an exurb of Denver some 25 miles away.
Andy Hoover may be typical of them.
That Monday, he told a 911 dispatcher he was watching his house burn.
"I think I'm safe," he said.
"Can you get out of the area, because we don't know if we have a second wave (of fire) coming in there," the dispatcher said.
"You know what, ma'am, I could try," Hoover said. "I'm not sure that's a smart idea."
___
Associated Press writers Dan Elliott, Rema Rahman and P. Solomon Banda contributed to this report.
_________________________
The MPNA is an advocacy group for adjacent neighbors of the Mohonk Preserve. In the event of a dispute with the Mohonk Preserve, we can offer assistance in obtaining experts in the following areas; Surveying, Lawyers, Title, expert witnesses, ancient document research, and Maps.

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#65186 - 06/03/12 03:36 PM Re: Prescribed Burns [Re: Advocacy group]
Advocacy group Offline
addict

Registered: 08/03/10
Posts: 653
Loc: New Paltz,Marbletown,Gardiner,...
One of the worst cases of a prescribed burn getting out of control was in New Mexico in 2000. A prescribed burn set by the National Park Service in Bandelier National Monument, west of Los Alamos, blew out of control, and all of Los Alamos was evacuated. More than 400 families lost their homes and more than 115 Los Alamos National Laboratory buildings were destroyed or damaged. The federal government paid $455 million in compensation.
_________________________
The MPNA is an advocacy group for adjacent neighbors of the Mohonk Preserve. In the event of a dispute with the Mohonk Preserve, we can offer assistance in obtaining experts in the following areas; Surveying, Lawyers, Title, expert witnesses, ancient document research, and Maps.

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#65188 - 06/03/12 05:34 PM Re: Prescribed Burns [Re: Advocacy group]
retroscree Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 397
Originally Posted By: Advocacy group
Hey MarkHeyman, while we may have alienated some, our feeling is that there will always be people who are unreasonable, have an agenda, simply do not care, selfish, etc. Again, we are not trying to get you on our side, we are focused on the neighbors, locals and elected officials. If a few outside people get involved or engage us in some constructive dialog that helps us focus and hone our message so be it. But we can and enjoy sparring with the idiots as well. Again you get the dialog you deserve. If you treat us with respect we will reciprocate. If you turn it into a flame fest we can hang in that medium as well.
So back on topic. Fire is not part of the Northeast for the following reasons
1.lightning strikes account for less than 3% of all fires.
2. Lightning usually occurs during rain when the forest cannot burn
3. Most lightning in the northeast is not cloud to ground lightning it's cloud to cloud.
4. Take a look at our mountains and show me one area that has burned due to lightning in the past 100 years. If our forests depended on fire it would happen much more frequently.

3 people died and 29 houses were destroyed in Colorado this past march due to a prescribed burn that started out as a 50 ac burn. The same size as the duck pond burn.


Take a look at the map in this paper.

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#65189 - 06/03/12 05:49 PM Re: Prescribed Burns [Re: Advocacy group]
retroscree Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 397
You've posted two articles about prescribed burns that got out of control due to incompetence and mistakes, yet you ignore the literally thousands of prescribed burns done safely that occur annually. What's the point of posting those? Once again, you're condemning the Preserve by silent implication.

Yes, there's an obvious risk in intentionally setting a fire, but you're ignoring the far greater risk a policy of full suppression creates by allowing fuel to build up. I'd bet that if a wildfire started on Mohonk lands that took out your or your neighbors houses, you'd be the first one screaming at the Preserve for not having done prescribed burns to reduce the fuel on the forest floor.

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#65190 - 06/03/12 06:35 PM Re: Prescribed Burns [Re: retroscree]
Advocacy group Offline
addict

Registered: 08/03/10
Posts: 653
Loc: New Paltz,Marbletown,Gardiner,...
Since the 1870's the average fire in all of NYS has been less than 50 ac. Most years show much less than 15000 total acres burned in the entire state. Fire would have to happen much more regularly to be a factor in the northeast ecosystem.
_________________________
The MPNA is an advocacy group for adjacent neighbors of the Mohonk Preserve. In the event of a dispute with the Mohonk Preserve, we can offer assistance in obtaining experts in the following areas; Surveying, Lawyers, Title, expert witnesses, ancient document research, and Maps.

Top
#65191 - 06/03/12 09:42 PM Re: Prescribed Burns [Re: Advocacy group]
Rickster Online   content
old hand

Registered: 10/16/07
Posts: 845
Loc: Orange Cty, NY
Originally Posted By: Advocacy group
Since the 1870's the average fire in all of NYS has been less than 50 ac. Most years show much less than 15000 total acres burned in the entire state. Fire would have to happen much more regularly to be a factor in the northeast ecosystem.


If looking at the total acres in NYS as you posted, shouldn't you add in the total burned acres for the entire NE before you could routinely say that "....... more regularly to be a factor in the northeast ecosystem? Rather it should read.... more regularly to be a factor in the NYS ecosystem.

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#65192 - 06/03/12 09:43 PM Re: Prescribed Burns [Re: Advocacy group]
retroscree Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 397
Originally Posted By: Advocacy group
Since the 1870's the average fire in all of NYS has been less than 50 ac. Most years show much less than 15000 total acres burned in the entire state. Fire would have to happen much more regularly to be a factor in the northeast ecosystem.

If anyone wants to see the actual numbers instead of agenda-driven propaganda averages, take a look at:
http://www.dec.ny.gov/lands/42438.html

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#65193 - 06/03/12 09:56 PM Re: Prescribed Burns [Re: retroscree]
retroscree Offline
enthusiast

Registered: 06/29/11
Posts: 397
\

[Right click and "View image" for full size on Windows machines.]

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#65194 - 06/03/12 10:02 PM Re: Prescribed Burns [Re: Rickster]
Rickster Online   content
old hand

Registered: 10/16/07
Posts: 845
Loc: Orange Cty, NY
The US Fire Administration last posted reports for FEMA were 2009. They list a total of 78,792 fires in the US with a total of 5,921,786 acres burned. 2006 was an even bigger year with 96,385 fires totaling 9,873,745 acres burned. We're not talking house fires, car fires, etc. These are wildfires, brush fires, forest fires etc.

Compared to NYS average of burned acres to total numbers of fires, the national average for 2009 is 75.15 acres burned. The average in 2006 was 102.44 burned acres per fire.. A 50 acre wild fire may seem small, till the acres turn out to be yours or a place you value. Though NYS may indeed average only 50 acres per event, the Overlook Fire burned 2800 acres of the Shawangunk ridge.

The US Fire Admin periodically releases Topical Papers on various fire related topics. The one pertaining to wildfires was for years leading up to 1998. A bit dated, but the figures could prove relevant to this discussion. Natural fires made up less than 5% of all fires, compared to "incendiary or suspicious" fires which made up just shy of 40% of the reported fires for the period.

www.usfa.fema.gov/statistics/estimates/wildfire.shtm

www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v2i19-508.pdf

http://www.dec.ny.gov/lands/42378.html

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